Geoeconomics Eval-Ready Implementation Plan

For agentic workers: REQUIRED SUB-SKILL: Use superpowers:subagent-driven-development (recommended) or superpowers:executing-plans to implement this plan task-by-task. Steps use checkbox (- [ ]) syntax for tracking.

Goal: Move geoeconomics from a deferred candidate shell to eval_ready with a subject-owned fixture pack, manifest-backed signals, method-only borrowing, mixed-adjacent coverage, and near-miss guards.

Architecture: Reuse the existing runtime subject contract and subject router evaluation gate. Geoeconomics should be measurable only under the eval-ready gate through evaluation_subjects=["geoeconomics"]; default runtime behavior remains suppressed until a later promotion-ready/runtime-enabled review.

Tech Stack: Python 3, unittest, JSON subject router fixtures, YAML runtime subject manifests, Qiongli subject router evaluation tooling.

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File Map

• Modify: tests/test_subject_router_eval.py
  • Add geoeconomics fixture inventory coverage.
  • Add a real fixture-pack eval-ready gate test.
  • Add a runtime-enabled guard proving checked-in eval_ready is not default activation.
  • Remove geoeconomics from the deferred-shell candidate loop.
• Modify: tests/test_subject_contracts.py
  • Classify geoeconomics as eval_ready instead of a deferred candidate.
  • Add manifest structure checks for signal groups, method lenses, subject skill, evaluation pack, and metrics.
• Modify: content/subjects/geoeconomics/runtime-subject.yaml
  • Set activation_status: eval_ready.
  • Add geoeconomics subject_skill.
  • Add method, data/outcome, venue, and theory/construct signal groups.
  • Add method lenses and evaluation_pack: tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics.
• Create: tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics/*.json
  • Add clear positive, method-only borrow, confirmed-subject, mixed-adjacent, and near-miss fixtures.
• Modify: docs/superpowers/roadmaps/2026-07-01-adaptive-subject-runtime-roadmap.md
  • Record geoeconomics as eval-ready.
  • Leave economics-accounting as the remaining deferred candidate.

Execution Notes

• Do not promote geoeconomics to runtime_enabled in this slice.
• Do not change finance, economics, accounting, business, or political-economy routing behavior.
• Avoid triggering built-in finance/economics priority in geoeconomics fixtures unless the fixture explicitly treats that as an accepted adjacent subject.
• Do not change provider configuration, local-agent execution, packaging, or release automation.
• Group commits by content:
  • feat(subjects): mark geoeconomics eval ready
  • docs(roadmap): record geoeconomics eval readiness

Task 1: Add Geoeconomics Gate Tests

Files:

• Modify: tests/test_subject_router_eval.py

• Modify: tests/test_subject_contracts.py

• [ ] Step 1: Add fixture inventory expectations

Add this required_geoeconomics_ids block next to the existing political-economy inventory block:

        required_geoeconomics_ids = {
            "geoeconomics_clear_sanctions_statecraft",
            "geoeconomics_method_only_statecraft_borrow",
            "geoeconomics_confirmed_statecraft_audit",
            "geoeconomics_mixed_finance_supply_chain_exposure",
            "geoeconomics_near_miss_supply_chain_ops",
            "geoeconomics_near_miss_geopolitics_brief",
        }
        self.assertTrue(required_geoeconomics_ids.issubset(set(ids)))
        geoeconomics_tags = {
            tag
            for case_id in required_geoeconomics_ids
            for tag in list(cases_by_id[case_id].tags or [])
        }
        self.assertTrue(
            {
                "clear_positive",
                "method_only_borrow",
                "mixed_subject",
                "near_miss",
                "confirmed_subject",
            }.issubset(geoeconomics_tags)
        )

• [ ] Step 2: Add eval-ready gate test

Add near the political-economy gate tests:

    def test_geoeconomics_eval_ready_gate_passes_real_fixture_pack(self) -> None:
        cases = load_eval_cases(FIXTURE_DIR)

        report = subject_gate_report("geoeconomics", cases, gate="eval-ready")

        self.assertEqual(report["subject"], "geoeconomics")
        self.assertEqual(report["activation_status"], "eval_ready")
        self.assertTrue(report["eligible_for_eval_ready"])
        self.assertFalse(report["eligible_for_runtime_enabled"])
        self.assertEqual(report["blocking_failures"], [])
        self.assertEqual(report["metrics"]["decision_accuracy"], 1.0)
        self.assertEqual(report["metrics"]["primary_subject_accuracy"], 1.0)
        self.assertEqual(report["metrics"]["suggest_subject_precision"], 1.0)
        self.assertEqual(report["metrics"]["forbidden_subject_accuracy"], 1.0)
        self.assertEqual(report["metrics"]["method_lens_accuracy"], 1.0)
        self.assertEqual(report["metrics"]["all_case_checks_passed"], 1.0)
        self.assertEqual(report["metrics"]["near_miss_false_positives"], 0)

• [ ] Step 3: Add runtime-enabled guard

Add:

    def test_geoeconomics_runtime_enabled_gate_blocks_eval_ready_manifest(self) -> None:
        cases = load_eval_cases(FIXTURE_DIR)

        report = subject_gate_report("geoeconomics", cases, gate="runtime-enabled")

        self.assertEqual(report["activation_status"], "eval_ready")
        self.assertFalse(report["eligible_for_eval_ready"])
        self.assertFalse(report["eligible_for_runtime_enabled"])
        self.assertIn("activation_status is eval_ready", report["blocking_failures"])

• [ ] Step 4: Update deferred candidate loop

Change the deferred subject tuple in test_candidate_subject_eval_ready_gate_reports_deferred_shell_reasons to contain only:

        deferred_subjects = (
            "economics-accounting",
        )

• [ ] Step 5: Update contract classification

In tests/test_subject_contracts.py, classify geoeconomics as eval_ready and remove it from the deferred candidate shell set. Add a geoeconomics manifest test equivalent to the political-economy manifest test but checking:

contract.activation_status == "eval_ready"
contract.evaluation_pack == "tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics"
contract.subject_skill == "content/subjects/geoeconomics/skills/geoeconomic-statecraft-auditor.md"

• [ ] Step 6: Run RED

Run:

.venv/bin/python -m unittest tests.test_subject_router_eval.SubjectRouterEvalTests.test_geoeconomics_eval_ready_gate_passes_real_fixture_pack -q

Expected before implementation:

FAIL: activation_status is candidate

Task 2: Add Geoeconomics Runtime Manifest

Files:

• Modify: content/subjects/geoeconomics/runtime-subject.yaml

• [ ] Step 1: Promote only to eval-ready

Set:

activation_status: eval_ready
subject_skill: content/subjects/geoeconomics/skills/geoeconomic-statecraft-auditor.md
evaluation_pack: tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics

• [ ] Step 2: Add method-only signals and lenses

Use method-only signals for:

• statecraft-instrument-audit
• supply-chain-exposure-design

Method lenses:

• geoeconomic-statecraft-audit -> content/subjects/geoeconomics/skills/geoeconomic-statecraft-auditor.md

• supply-chain-exposure-design -> content/subjects/geoeconomics/overlays/skills/study-designer.md

• geoeconomic-positioning -> content/subjects/geoeconomics/overlays/skills/manuscript-architect.md

• [ ] Step 3: Add subject-level signals

Subject-level signals must include at least:

• data/outcome: sanctions/export-control response, supply-chain exposure, target response, substitution/evasion.
• theory/construct: sender-target-instrument logic, strategic competition, economic statecraft mechanism.

Venue signals should include International Security, International Organization, Review of International Political Economy, and World Politics.

Task 3: Add Geoeconomics Fixtures

Files:

• Create: tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics/clear_sanctions_statecraft.json

• Create: tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics/method_only_statecraft_borrow.json

• Create: tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics/confirmed_statecraft_audit.json

• Create: tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics/mixed_finance_supply_chain_exposure.json

• Create: tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics/near_miss_supply_chain_ops.json

• Create: tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics/near_miss_geopolitics_brief.json

• [ ] Step 1: Add clear positive fixture

Use sender-target-instrument, sanctions/export controls, strategic objective, target response, and an international security venue. Under eval-ready, expect:

{
  "decision": "recommend",
  "primary_subject": "geoeconomics",
  "suggest_subjects": ["geoeconomics"],
  "forbidden_subjects": [],
  "method_lenses": [
    "geoeconomic-statecraft-audit",
    "geoeconomic-positioning"
  ]
}

Default expected should suppress subject suggestion and only borrow method lenses until runtime activation.

• [ ] Step 2: Add method-only borrow fixture

Use economic statecraft instrument-audit wording without subject-level sanctions, target-response, or strategic-competition signals. Expect primary auto, no geoeconomics suggestion, and method lens geoeconomic-statecraft-audit.

• [ ] Step 3: Add confirmed-subject fixture

Use active_subject: "geoeconomics" and subject_mode: "confirmed". Expect primary geoeconomics and no inferred suggestion requirement.

• [ ] Step 4: Add mixed-adjacent fixture

Mention finance adjacency only as market reaction or exposure, not enough to make finance primary. Under eval-ready, expect geoeconomics primary and allow finance as an adjacent subject if it appears.

• [ ] Step 5: Add near-miss fixtures

Supply-chain operations and geopolitics briefing near misses must remain core_only, with forbidden_subjects: ["geoeconomics"].

Task 4: Verify And Update Roadmap

Files:

• Modify: docs/superpowers/roadmaps/2026-07-01-adaptive-subject-runtime-roadmap.md

• [ ] Step 1: Run GREEN checks

Run:

.venv/bin/python -m unittest tests.test_subject_router_eval.SubjectRouterEvalTests.test_geoeconomics_eval_ready_gate_passes_real_fixture_pack -q
.venv/bin/python tooling/scripts/evaluate_subject_router.py --subject geoeconomics --gate eval-ready --json

Expected:

eligible_for_eval_ready: true
blocking_failures: []
near_miss_false_positives: 0

• [ ] Step 2: Run regressions

Run:

.venv/bin/python -m unittest tests.test_subject_router_eval tests.test_subject_contracts -q
git diff --check

Expected: all commands exit 0.

• [ ] Step 3: Update roadmap

Record geoeconomics as eval-ready and leave economics-accounting as the only deferred candidate subject.

• [ ] Step 4: Commit by content

Run:

git add content/subjects/geoeconomics/runtime-subject.yaml tests/test_subject_router_eval.py tests/test_subject_contracts.py tests/fixtures/subject_router_eval/geoeconomics
git commit -m "feat(subjects): mark geoeconomics eval ready"

git add docs/superpowers/plans/2026-07-06-geoeconomics-eval-ready.md docs/superpowers/roadmaps/2026-07-01-adaptive-subject-runtime-roadmap.md
git commit -m "docs(roadmap): record geoeconomics eval readiness"